Effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine for control of malaria in pregnancy in western Kenya: a hospital-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To monitor the effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) for the control of malaria in pregnancy at delivery in the Provincial Hospital in Kisumu, Kenya, and to assess the effect of IPT in participants in a cohort study. METHODS: Between June 1999 and June 2000, information on IPT and birth outcome was collected in 2302 consecutive deliveries. A group of 889 women, who were enrolled in a cohort to assess the interaction between malaria and HIV, were analysed separately because of the enrollment criteria and different access to health care. RESULTS: The prevalence of placental malaria was 13.8% and of low birthweight (LBW) was 12.2%. In multivariable analysis, IPT (> or =1 dose of SP) was associated with a reduction in placental malaria and LBW [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.39-0.83 and OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.45-0.95, respectively]. An adjusted mean increase in birthweight of 61 g was seen (95% CI 22-101 g) for each increment in number of SP doses (> or =2 doses grouped together). IPT was associated with a reduction in placental malaria in HIV-seronegative women (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.28-0.86) but this was not significant among HIV-seropositive women (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.20-1.05). A significant effect on birthweight could not be detected among participants in the HIV-cohort. CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation confirms that IPT with SP is effective in reducing placental malaria and LBW. It will be important to increase coverage of IPT and to extend IPT to antenatal clinics in peri-urban and rural areas.

Efficacy of a less-sensitive enzyme immunoassay (3A11-LS) for early diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus Type 1 infection in infants.

We evaluated a less-sensitive enzyme immunoassay (3A11-LS) for its possible use for early diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in infants. The results were compared with those from the immunoglobulin G-capture enzyme immunoassay. A total of 239 sera from 77 infants were tested. All 25 sera from the 10 infants born to seronegative mothers were found to be negative by both assays. Forty-one seroreverting infants showed a complete decay of maternal antibodies by 4 months by the 3A11-LS assay. However, the assay detected HIV antibodies in only 9 (36%) of 25 sera collected from infected infants between 4 and 6 months and in 27 (63%) of 43 sera collected after 6 months of age. Further analysis with alternative cutoff values indicated that the 3A11-LS had a sensitivity of 12 to 44% and a specificity of 90 to 100% for infants between 4-6 months of age. This data suggest that a diagnosis of HIV infection in some of the infants could be made after 4 months of age by the 3A11-LS assay, although a negative 3A11-LS test result may not rule out infection and may require a further followup.

Human immunodeficiency virus seropositivity and malaria as risk factors for third-trimester anemia in asymptomatic pregnant women in western Kenya.

To assess risk factors for anemia in late pregnancy, we studied healthy pregnant women with a singleton uncomplicated pregnancy of > or = 32 weeks attending the prenatal clinic in the Provincial Hospital in Kisumu, Kenya. Between June 1996 and December 1998, 4,608 pregnant women had a blood sample collected for hemoglobin (Hb) measurement, malaria smear, and testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The mean +/- standard deviation of Hb was 9.58 +/- 1.8 g/dL; 21% had malaria in their blood; and 25% of the women were HIV seropositive. Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia was more common among HIV-seropositive women in all gravidities compared with HIV-seronegative women (risk ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-1.92). In a multivariate analysis, for primi- and secundigravidae women, the factors malaria, belonging to the Luo tribe, and HIV seropositivity were significantly associated with any anemia (Hb < 11 g/dL), and HIV seropositivity and documented fever were associated with severe anemia (Hb < 7 g/dL). In women of higher gravidities, HIV seropositivity was the only statistically significant factor associated with any anemia or with severe anemia. Asymptomatic HIV seropositivity is an important risk factor to be considered in the differential diagnosis of maternal anemia, independent of P. falciparum parasitemia.

Maternal characteristics associated with antenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal zidovudine use in four US cities, 1994-1998.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate implementation of 1994 United States Public Health Service guidelines for zidovudine (ZDV) use in HIV-infected women and their newborns by describing the prevalence of use of perinatal ZDV and other antiretrovirals and by investigating determinants of not receiving perinatal ZDV. DESIGN/METHODS: The Perinatal AIDS Collaborative Transmission Study is a prospective cohort study designed to collect information related to mother-to-child HIV transmission that was conducted in New York City (NY), Newark (NJ), Baltimore (MD), and Atlanta (GA), U.S.A. The current analysis was restricted to infants born between July 1994 and June 1998. RESULTS: Utilization rates for antenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal ZDV increased from 41% to 70% during the 4-year period. Use of combination antiretrovirals increased from fewer than 2% of women in 1994 to 1995 to 35% in 1997 to 1998. Antenatal and neonatal ZDV use increased each year, but intrapartum ZDV use reached a plateau after 1996. Mother-infant pairs with the following characteristics were less likely to have received a complete 3-part ZDV regimen: older maternal age, CD4 count >500 cells/microl, preterm birth, cocaine or heroin use during pregnancy, positive newborn drug screen test result, and smoking or alcohol use during pregnancy. By multivariate logistic regression adjusted for hospital and year of birth, cocaine or heroin use during pregnancy (odds ratio [OR], 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-3.3), maternal CD4 count (OR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.8; comparing <200 with >500 cells/microl), and preterm birth (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.5) remained independently associated with not receiving the complete ZDV regimen. CONCLUSIONS: ZDV use by pregnant HIV-infected women and their infants has increased dramatically since publication of the 1994 guidelines. Nevertheless, women who abuse substances, give birth preterm, or have less advanced immunosuppression, were at substantial risk of not receiving the complete ZDV regimen.

HIV in the United States at the turn of the century: an epidemic in transition.

OBJECTIVES: The current status of and changes in the HIV epidemic in the United States are described. METHODS: Surveillance data were used to evaluate time trends in AIDS diagnoses and deaths. Estimates of HIV incidence were derived from studies done during the 1990s; time trends in recent HIV incidence were inferred from HIV diagnoses and seroprevalence rates among young persons. RESULTS: Numbers of deaths and AIDS diagnoses decreased dramatically during 1996 and 1997 but stabilized or declined only slightly during 1998 and 1999. Proportional decreases were smallest among African American women, women in the South, and persons infected through heterosexual contact, HIV incidence has been roughly constant since 1992 in most populations with time trend data, remains highest among men who have sex with men and injection drug users, and typically is higher among African Americans than other racial/ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemic increasingly affects women minorities, persons infected through heterosexual contact, and the poor. Renewed interest and investment in HIV and AIDS surveillance and surveillance of behaviors associated with HIV transmission are essential to direct resources for prevention to populations with greatest need and to evaluate intervention programs.

Cost-effectiveness of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for the prevention of malaria-associated low birth weight.

Prevention of placental malaria through administration of antimalarial medications to pregnant women in disease-endemic areas decreases the risk of delivery of low birth weight (LBW) infants. In areas of high Plasmodium falciparum transmission, two intermittent presumptive treatment doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy are effective in decreasing the prevalence of placental malaria in human immunodeficiency virus (HlV)-negative women, while HIV-positive women may require a monthly SP regimen to reduce their prevalence of placental parasitemia. A decision-analysis model was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of three different presumptive SP treatment regimens with febrile case management with SP in terms of incremental cost per case LBW prevented. Factors considered included HIV seroprevalence, placental malaria prevalence, LBW incidence, the cost of SP, medical care for LBW infants, and HIV testing. For a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 pregnant women, the monthly SP regimen would always be the most effective strategy for reducing LBW associated with malaria. The two-dose SP and monthly SP regimens would prevent 172 and 229 cases of LBW, respectively, compared with the case management approach. At HIV seroprevalence rates greater than 10%, the monthly SP regimen is the least expensive strategy. At HIV seroprevalence rates less than 10%, the two-dose SP regimen would be the less expensive option. When only antenatal clinic costs are considered, the two-dose and monthly SP strategies cost US $11 and $14, respectively, well within the range considered cost effective. Presumptive treatment regimens to prevent LBW associated with malaria and the subsequent increased risk of mortality during the first year of life are effective and cost effective strategies in areas with both elevated HIV prevalence and malaria transmission rates.

The burden of malaria in pregnancy in malaria-endemic areas.

Pregnant women in malarious areas may experience a variety of adverse consequences from malaria infection including maternal anemia, placental accumulation of parasites, low birth weight (LBW) from prematurity and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), fetal parasite exposure and congenital infection, and infant mortality (IM) linked to preterm-LBW and IUGR-LBW. We reviewed studies between 1985 and 2000 and summarized the malaria population attributable risk (PAR) that accounts for both the prevalence of the risk factors in the population and the magnitude of the associated risk for anemia, LBW, and IM. Consequences from anemia and human immunodeficiency virus infection in these studies were also considered. Population attributable risks were substantial: malaria was associated with anemia (PAR range = 3-15%), LBW (8-14%), preterm-LBW (8-36%), IUGR-LBW (13-70%), and IM (3-8%). Human immunodeficiency virus was associated with anemia (PAR range = 12-14%), LBW (11-38%), and direct transmission in 20-40% of newborns, with direct mortality consequences. Maternal anemia was associated with LBW (PAR range = 7-18%), and fetal anemia was associated with increased IM (PAR not available). We estimate that each year 75,000 to 200,000 infant deaths are associated with malaria infection in pregnancy. The failure to apply known effective antimalarial interventions through antenatal programs continues to contribute substantially to infant deaths globally.

Malaria surveillance--United States, 1998.

PROBLEM/CONDITION: Human malaria is caused by one or more of four species of intraerythrocytic protozoa of the genus Plasmodium (i.e., P. falciparum, P. vivax, P. ovale, or P. malariae). The protozoa are transmitted by the bite of an infective female Anopheles species mosquito. The majority of malaria infections in the United States occur among persons who have traveled to areas with endemic transmission. Cases occasionally occur that are acquired through exposure to infected blood products, by congenital transmission, or by local mosquitoborne transmission. Malaria surveillance is conducted to identify episodes of local transmission and to guide prevention recommendations for travelers. REPORTING PERIOD: Cases with an onset of symptoms during 1998. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: Malaria cases confirmed by blood smear are reported to local and state health departments by health-care providers and laboratory staff members. Case investigations are conducted by local and state health departments, and reports are sent to CDC through the National Malaria Surveillance System (NMSS). This report uses NMSS data. RESULTS: CDC received reports of 1,227 cases of malaria with onsets of symptoms in 1998, among persons in the United States and its territories. This number represents a decrease of 20.5% from the 1,544 cases reported during 1997. P. falciparum, P. vivax, P. malariae, and P. ovale were identified in 42.8%, 37.8%, 3.5%, and 2.1% of cases, respectively. More than one species was present in seven patients (0.6% of total). The infecting species was not determined in 162 (13.2%) cases. Compared with reported cases in 1997, reported malaria cases acquired in Africa increased by 1.3% (n = 706); those acquired in Asia decreased by 52.1% (n = 239); and those acquired in the Americas decreased by 6.5% (n = 229). Of 636 U.S. civilians who acquired malaria abroad, 126 (19.8%) reportedly had followed a chemoprophylactic drug regimen recommended by CDC for the area to which they had traveled. Five persons became infected in the United States. One case was congenitally acquired; one was acquired by blood transfusion; and three were isolated cases that could not be epidemiologically linked to another case. Four deaths were attributed to malaria. INTERPRETATION: The 20.5% decrease in malaria cases during 1998 compared with 1997 resulted primarily from decreases in P. vivax cases acquired in Asia among non-U.S. civilians. This decrease could have resulted from local changes in disease transmission, decreased immigration from the region, decreased travel to the region, incomplete reporting from state and local health departments, or increased use of effective antimalarial chemoprophylaxis. In a majority of reported cases, U.S. civilians who acquired infection abroad had not taken an appropriate chemoprophylaxis regimen for the country where they acquired malaria. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTIONS TAKEN: Additional information was obtained from state and local health departments and clinics concerning the four fatal cases and the five infections acquired in the United States. Persons traveling to a malarious area should take a recommended chemoprophylaxis regimen and use personal protection measures to prevent mosquito bites. Any person who has been to a malarious area and subsequently develops fever or influenza-like symptoms should seek medical care immediately; the investigation should include a blood smear for malaria. Malaria infections can be fatal if not diagnosed and treated promptly. Current recommendations concerning prevention and treatment of malaria can be obtained from CDC.

Risk factors for HIV infection among asymptomatic pregnant women attending an antenatal clinic in western Kenya.

Our objective was to evaluate HIV prevalence and identify risk factors for HIV infection among women attending the antenatal clinic (ANC) at a large public hospital in Kisumu town, western Kenya. Between June 1996 and November 1997, in the context of a study to determine the effect of placental malaria on mother-to-child transmission of HIV in western Kenya, HIV-1 antibody testing was offered to women with a singleton uncomplicated pregnancy of > or =32 weeks' gestation attending the ANC. Women were interviewed using a structured questionnaire and had a fingerstick blood sample collected for haemoglobin (Hb), malaria smears, and HIV antibody testing. Overall HIV seroprevalence was 26.1% (743/2844) (95% confidence interval (CI): 24.5-27.7) and in bivariate evaluation was significantly associated with anaemia (Hb <11 g/dl) (risk ratio (RR) 1.8), malarial parasitaemia (RR 1.6), fever (axillary temperature > or =37.5 degrees C at screening) (RR 1.6), a history of being treated for either vaginal discharge (RR 1.5) or tuberculosis (RR 1.6), reported alcohol consumption (RR 1.6), being an unmarried multigravida (RR 2.2) or a history of the most recent child having died (RR 2.0). Poisson regression analysis for all women identified 5 significant factors independently associated with HIV seropositivity: anaemia (adjusted RR 1.7; 95% CI 1.3-2.0), malarial parasitaemia (adjusted RR 1.7; 95% CI 1.4-2.0), a history of being treated for vaginal discharge (adjusted RR 1.5; 95% CI 1.1-2.0), fever (adjusted RR 2.0; 95% CI 1.3-3.2) and reported alcohol consumption (adjusted RR 1.6; 95% CI 1.1-2.5). Multigravidae women whose most recent child had died were also more likely to be HIV seropositive (adjusted RR 1.9; 95% CI 1.7-2.8). Only 5.5% (156/2844) of the women had none of these risk factors, of whom 12% (18/156) were HIV(+). Even though the model containing the 5 identified factors fitted the data well (goodness-of-fit chi2=18.41, P=0.10), its collective capacity to predict HIV infection was poor; while 74% of the truly positive women were correctly predicted positive by the model, 52% of the truly negative women were misclassified. Among pregnant women attending the ANC in western Kenya, we were unable to identify a subgroup at risk of HIV infection using non-serological information, indicating that wherever possible universal access to voluntary HIV counselling and testing would be preferable to targeted screening.

PIP: This study evaluated the HIV prevalence and identified the risk factors for HIV infection among women attending the antenatal clinic at a public hospital in Kisumu, western Kenya. Also, the effect of placental malaria on vertical HIV transmission were determined using structured interviews and HIV-1 antibody testing and hemoglobin malaria smears were offered to the respondents. Overall, HIV seroprevalence was 26.1% (743/2844) (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24.5-27.7) and in bivariate evaluation was significantly associated with anemia (risk ratio [RR] 1.8), malarial parasitemia (RR 1.6), fever (RR 1.6), a history of being treated for either vaginal discharge (RR 1.5) or tuberculosis (RR 1.6), alcohol consumption (RR 1.6), being an unmarried multigravida (RR 2.2), or a history of the most recent child having died (RR 2.0). Using the Poisson regression analysis, 5 significant factors associated with HIV seropositivity were identified: anemia, malarial parasitemia, and history of being treated for vaginal discharge, fever, and reported alcohol consumption. Among the pregnant women, the researchers were unable to identify a subgroup at risk of HIV infection using nonserological information, indicating that universal access to voluntary HIV counseling and testing would be preferable to targeted screening.

Cerebral malaria in Malawian children hospitalized with Plasmodium falciparum infection.

A hospital-based, prospective study was undertaken at Mangochi District Hospital (MDH) and Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH) in Malawi. The malaria-transmission patterns in the catchment areas of these two hospitals are very different, transmission being continuous around MDH and seasonal, occurring mostly during the rainy season, around KCH. The main purpose of the study was to determine and compare the prevalences of cerebral malaria (CM) among young, hospitalized children (aged < 5 years) at both sites. Among 8600 of such children admitted to the two hospitals, the overall prevalence of CM was 2.3% (2.2% at KCH and 2.5% at MDH). The prevalences of CM on admission were similar at the two sites during the rainy season (at 3.2%), but the prevalence at MDH during the dry season was statistically higher than that at KCH over the same period (2.1% v. 1.0%; P = 0.0078). A nearly significant difference was noted between the two sites in the prevalences of parasitaemia on admission (11.9% at KCH v. 9.2% at MDH; P = 0.07), and of severe malarial anaemia (SMA) on admission (5.4% at KCH v. 4.2% at MDH; P = 0.06). No inter-site differences were noted in the prevalences of CM or SMA when analysed by mean age, weight, haemoglobin, body temperature, weight-for-age Z-scores, duration of hospitalization, or proportion with high parasite score on admission. These findings differ from those by researchers in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa, where the prevalence of CM has been found to be higher in areas with seasonal transmission patterns. It appears that the epidemiology of CM can differ within the same country, with location and season. Whenever possible, therefore, plans to control CM in any sub-Saharan country should be based on locally generated data.

Distinct risk factors for intrauterine and intrapartum human immunodeficiency virus transmission and consequences for disease progression in infected children. Perinatal AIDS Collaborative Transmission Study.

Predictors and prognosis of intrauterine and intrapartum human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission were investigated among 432 children of HIV-infected women in the Perinatal AIDS Collaborative Transmission Study. Timing of transmission was inferred from polymerase chain reaction or viral culture within 2 days of birth. Proportions of infections due to intrauterine transmission were similar among women using (29%) or not using zidovudine (30%). Preterm delivery was strongly associated with intrapartum transmission (relative risk, 3.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2-6.1), particularly among infants delivered longer after membrane rupture, but was not associated with intrauterine transmission. Progression to AIDS or death increased 2.5-fold (95% CI, 1.1-5.8) among intrauterine infected children, adjusting for preterm delivery, and maternal CD4 cell count. Early transmission appears unlikely to explain instances of zidovudine failure. Preterm infants may be more vulnerable to HIV acquisition at delivery, especially if membrane rupture is prolonged. Intrauterine infection does not appear to increase risk of preterm delivery.

Efficacy of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for prevention of placental malaria in an area of Kenya with a high prevalence of malaria and human immunodeficiency virus infection.

A fever case management (CM) approach using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) was compared with two presumptive intertmittent SP treatment regimens in the second and third trimesters in pregnant primigravidae and secundigravidae in an area of intense Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in western Kenya. The investigation evaluated efficacy of the antimalarial regimens for prevention of placental malaria and examined the effect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on antimalarial drug efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Twenty-seven percent (93 of 343) of pregnant women in the CM group had placental malaria compared with 12% (38 of 330; P < 0.001) of women who received two doses of SP and compared with 9% (28 of 316; P < 0.001) of women who received monthly SP. Fourteen percent (49 of 341) of women in the CM group delivered low birth weight (LBW) infants compared with 8% (27 of 325; P=0.118) of women who received two doses of SP and compared with 8% (26 of 331; P=0.078) of women who received monthly SP. Seven percent (7 of 99) of the HIV-negative women on the two-dose SP regimen had placental malaria compared with 25% (10 of 39; P=0.007) of HIV-positive women on the same regimen; the rate of placental malaria in HIV-positive women was reduced to 7% (2 of 28; P=-0.051) for women on the monthly SP regimen. Less than 2% of women reported adverse drug reactions, with no statistically significant differences between HIV-positive and HIV-negative women. Intermittent treatment with SP is safe and efficacious for the prevention of placental malaria in pregnant primigravidae and secundigravidae in sub-Saharan Africa. While a two-dose SP regimen may be effective in areas with low HIV seroprevalence, administration of SP monthly during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy should be considered in areas of high HIV seroprevalence to prevent the effects of maternal malaria on the newborn.

Sensitivity and specificity of a qualitative RNA detection assay to diagnose HIV infection in young infants. Perinatal AIDS Collaborative Transmission Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of an RNA detection assay for diagnosing perinatal HIV infection. METHODS: Plasma and serum specimens taken during the first 3 months of life from HIV-infected and uninfected children enrolled in a cohort study were assayed for HIV RNA using the qualitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (NASBA) kit. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated. NASBA results from infected children were compared with DNA PCR results from the same blood samples. Autoantibody patterns of suspected false-positive specimens were compared with those of subsequent specimens from the same child to exclude specimen labelling errors. RESULTS: Amongst 131 specimens from 105 HIV-infected children, the sensitivity of the qualitative NASBA assay was 13 out of 34 [38%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 22-56] at < 7 days, 56 out of 58 (97%; 95% CI, 88-100) at 7-41 days, and 37 out of 39 (95%; 95% CI, 83-99) at 42-93 days of life. Of 252 specimens from 206 uninfected children, six tested positive and one tested indeterminate by NASBA. Four of these positive specimens had discordant autoantibody patterns suggesting mislabelling; excluding these, the test specificity was 245 out of 248 (99%; 95% CI, 97-100). Amongst 128 paired specimens from infected children, NASBA results were more often positive than those from DNA PCR (103 versus 92; P=0.01). Amongst infants with specimens drawn in the first week of life, the proportion born after > 4 h of membrane rupture was greater amongst those testing negative (81%) than those testing positive (46%; P=0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The qualitative NASBA RNA assay is highly specific and more sensitive than DNA PCR. Qualitative RNA assays may be useful for diagnosing and excluding perinatal HIV infection in children after the first week of life for such purposes as initiating antiretroviral therapy and other treatment, resolving parental uncertainty, determining timing of transmission, and providing endpoints for intervention trials.

Association of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) load early in life with disease progression among HIV-infected infants. New York City Perinatal HIV Transmission Collaborative Study Group.

The utility of RNA virus load to predict progression of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 disease was assessed in 89 HIV-1-infected children. Of 22 virus load values during week 1 of life, 17 were below the detection threshold. Geometric mean virus load increased to approximately 7 x 10(5) copies/mL by week 4, was sustained throughout the first 6 months of life, and then declined to 1.6 x 10(5) copies/mL during the third year. Samples from week 1 of life had little predictive value, but virus load during days 7-30 strongly predicted progression to CDC-3 classification or death (P = .024; risk ratio = 1.6), and virus load during months 2-3 predicted progression to CDC-C or death within the first 6 months of life (P = .002, risk ratio = 11). Virus load was highly associated with imminent vulnerability to CDC-C or death (P = .002) during the first 18 months of life. Except for values from the first week of life, virus load at any age through 18 months is strongly associated with risk of HIV disease progression.

Incubation period of HIV-1 in perinatally infected children. New York City Perinatal HIV Transmission Collaborative Study Group.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the distribution of the incubation period of HIV-1 among perinatally infected children and to test the hypothesis that this distribution has been changing over time. DESIGN: An analysis of 190 perinatally HIV-1-infected children born between 1986 and 1997 in eight medical centers in New York City to women enrolled in a prospective cohort study. METHODS: Non-parametric Kaplan-Meier method and parametric survival analysis. RESULTS: Using the Kaplan-Meier method it was estimated that among perinatally HIV-1-infected children, 48% [95% confidence interval (CI), 41-56] developed AIDS by 3 years of age after which the rate was less than 3% per year. Using a parametric survival analysis for extrapolation, it was predicted that 33% (95% CI, 23-43) would remain AIDS-free at 13 years of age. Median age at onset of AIDS was estimated to be 4.1 years (95% CI, 1.9-6.4) by parametric survival analysis. The year of birth was significantly associated with AIDS-free survival, suggesting an increase in the time to AIDS over the years. This association remained significant (P=0.03) after adjustment for those maternal characteristics that have also changed over time: timing of enrollment (prepartum versus postpartum), zidovudine, alcohol, and hard drug (heroin, cocaine or methadone) use during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Although a substantial proportion of perinatally HIV-1-infected children develop AIDS very early in life, a significant and increasing percentage of them are expected to survive into adolescence without developing AIDS. Further research is needed to determine the factors associated with the lengthening survival to AIDS.

Genetic evaluation of suspected cases of transient HIV-1 infection of infants.

Detection of human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) on only one or a few occasions in infants born to infected mothers has been interpreted to indicate that infection may be transient rather than persistent. Forty-two cases of suspected transient HIV-1 viremia among 1562 perinatally exposed seroreverting infants and one mother were reanalyzed. HIV-1 env sequences were not found in specimens from 20; in specimens from 6, somatic genetic analysis revealed that specimens were mistakenly attributed to an infant; and in specimens from 17, phylogenetic analysis failed to demonstrate the expected linkage between the infant's and the mother's virus. These findings argue that transient HIV-1 infection, if it exists, will only rarely be satisfactorily documented.

Neutralizing antibody and perinatal transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1. New York City Perinatal HIV Transmission Collaborative Study Group.

The major immunologic determinants for perinatal transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) remain largely unknown. The presence of maternal neutralizing antibodies has been proposed as an explanation for why the majority of infants born to untreated HIV-1-infected women do not become infected. Using maternal and infant specimens collected as part of a longitudinal cohort study of perinatal transmission in New York City between 1991 and 1995, we successfully obtained primary viral isolates from 10 of 20 perinatally nontransmitting (NTR) women, 14 of 20 perinatally transmitting (TR) women, and 13 of 13 of their HIV-1-infected infants. Neutralizing antibody titers were then determined using a titer reduction assay. TR and NTR women did not differ in their ability to neutralize autologous virus or laboratory strains LAI and MN. Infant viruses were not less sensitive to neutralization by maternal sera than autologous viruses. Similarly, TR and NTR isolates were neutralized equally well using a reference serum with broad neutralizing ability. Finally, a heteroduplex tracking assay (HTA) was used to analyze the degree of viral homology within 13 TR maternal-infant pairs. In eight pairs, maternal and infant isolates were highly homologous. In five pairs, lesser degrees of homology were observed, consistent with perinatal transmission of a minor species. However, these isolates were no more or less resistant to maternal sera than were homologous isolates. Thus we found no association between the presence of neutralizing antibody in maternal sera as measured by a titer reduction neutralization (inactivation) assay and perinatal transmission of HIV-1.